The Cook Islands’ decision to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership with China has stirred controversy, particularly in New Zealand, which has long maintained close ties with the Pacific nation through a free association agreement. While Wellington insists it should have been consulted before the deal was signed, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown argues his country acts as a sovereign and independent state in global affairs.
Beyond the diplomatic fallout, what does this partnership actually mean for the region? And could it set a precedent for other Pacific nations? KPRG’s Naina Rao spoke with Geoffrey Miller, a geopolitical analyst with New Zealand’s Democracy Project, to unpack the implications of this deal and how it could reshape Pacific diplomacy.
TRANSCRIPT
JEFFERSON CRONIN/HOST: The Pacific region is once again in the global spotlight as the Cook Islands has signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with China. The agreement has sparked debate in New Zealand, given its historic ties with the Cook Islands, which remains a free association with Wellington. But beyond the diplomatic tension, what does this deal actually mean? And why did the Cook Islands move toward closer relations with Beijing? To help unpack this, we turned to KPRG's Naina Rao, who spoke with Geoffrey Miller, a geopolitical analyst with the Democracy Project in New Zealand. He specializes in Pacific diplomacy and international relations.
NAINA RAO: One of the first things I wanted to ask you is under this theme of navigating Pacific diplomacy. Given New Zealand's free association with the Cook Islands, how might the recent China-Cook Islands partnership impact diplomatic relations within the Pacific?
GEOFFREY MILLER: There's an issue of a comprehensive strategic partnership with China that the Cook Islands has just signed. It has been quite a big deal. And it's significant because the Cook Islands is a self-governing state in free association with the Pacific. New Zealand and it has held that status for 60 years this year. And so it is significant that the Cook Islands is signing an agreement with a third party. That said, there is very much a provision for the Cook Islands to do that. And there is a 2001 joint centenary declaration between New Zealand and the Cook Islands. And it simply states that the Cook Islands interacts with the international community as a sovereign and independent state. And that's very much what the Cook Islands Prime Minister, Mark Brown, has been doing with his trip to China. New Zealand sees this all quite differently because there is also a provision in that agreement for consultation on foreign affairs matters. New Zealand believes that it should have been consulted more fully and it should have been able to see the text of that agreement with China before Mark Brown went to sign it.
RAO: Just so I'm clear, the Cook Islands does not need permission from New Zealand to sign any sort of agreement with another country, including China?
MILLER: That very much depends on who you ask. I think if you read the agreement, and it's a very simple six-page agreement that anyone can read. It's on the New Zealand Foreign Ministry website. That line sovereign independent state, I think, is quite significant. New Zealand may regret that it included that description, but that's what is stated there. New Zealand argues that the Consultation provisions which are included in the agreement mean that the Cook Islands really should have gone to New Zealand and shown them this agreement before going off and signing it. But those consultation provisions are still on the fake side. There's also another provision a bit later for defense and security. But Mark Brown has been clear that this comprehensive strategic partnership does not involve defense or security matters.
RAO: What has been the response from Christopher Luxton's administration? How has New Zealand responded to this?
MILLER: Well, New Zealand's responded to this quite angrily and there've been quite a number of extraordinary statements now coming out via spokespersons for the foreign minister, Winston Peters, taking quite a hardline stance towards Mark Brown and saying that New Zealand has been improperly consulted, saying that New Zealand and the Cook Islands do not see eye to eye on a number of matters. So it's been really fascinating to see this falling out, which has been so public. And I'd say that it's been quite unedifying, actually, because Cook Islanders have New Zealand passports, and they are meant to be probably one of the closest countries, if not the closest, with New Zealand because of that. So there really shouldn't be this level of tension. And it seems that relations between Mark Brown and Winston Peters, the New Zealand foreign minister, really have hit rock bottom.
RAO: Why do you think, or what do you think, pushed the Cook Islands to sign this agreement with China?
MILLER: I think a few reasons. Look, I think Mark Brown generally is interested in development and economic development for the Cook Islands. I think most leaders want to leave their country in a better state than they found it. And that's a big motivator. Some of the things he's mentioned like deep sea mining, maritime cooperation, and inter-island ferry service. These are the kinds of things that he's looking for and that China sounds like China is willing to provide. But I think he wants to take advantage of the competition in the Pacific. Suddenly there is another option, there is another player. And by going to Beijing and being willing to sign up to an agreement with China, He knows that New Zealand is also going to be a little jealous and a little more interested in the Cook Islands and the chequebook is going to come out. In the end, this is what it all comes back to. It comes back to money. And New Zealand supplies aid to the Cook Islands, or grant money. In fact, the Cook Islands now hold developed country status. They've actually been quite successful overall with their economy, but New Zealand still provides aid money to the Cook Islands every year as part of this agreement of free association. And it's a figure of around 60 million New Zealand dollars that have been supplied over the last three years. Mark Brown has openly said, well, that's not enough. So I think he's looking for New Zealand to provide a better offer.
RAO: Do you think we'll see more Pacific countries following the Cook Islands lead, or will there be pushback from regional partners?
MILLER: I think all Pacific states and there is this big geopolitical competition going on in the Pacific. I think the states will be watching what's going on. They'll be watching the spat between New Zealand and the Cook Islands, and they'll be watching the way that New Zealand has handled this. I don't know in the end what the response will be, whether the spat will make them more or less likely to do deals with China. For example, I don't think the way that New Zealand has handled this will go down particularly well overall with Pacific states. So I think there will be a lot of sympathy for Mark Brown and the Cook Islands and the Pacific because I think they all want to shake their own destiny and not be dictated to by anyone when it comes to their international relations. I think New Zealand may have made a misstep here in the way that they've handled this, but time will tell. Ultimately, I think this is it's been less than ideal. this diplomatic spat at the same time. I don't think it's the end of the world, either. I think then the next step will be dialogue between New Zealand and the Cook Islands to try and get this out of the media, out of the public eye, behind closed doors, and somehow they've got to find a way forward. And I think there are real opportunities for them to do so, if only because New Zealand also has quite good, solid relations with China going back many decades now. And in fact, New Zealand signed its own comprehensive strategic partnership with China back in 2014. So effectively, this puts the Cook Islands now on the same page. And New Zealand may not like how this has all come about, but it actually could pave the way for some trilateral cooperation on development and economic issues. And I think in the end, that kind of more win-win operation, I think that would be very useful for the Pacific, which is very interested in combatting climate change. very interested in development, very interested in developing their economic potential. These are small island states, and it's a struggle when you have very, very small populations living in isolated places. It's not an easy environment for nation-building.
RAO: Thank you so much for speaking with me, Geoffrey.
MILLER: You're very welcome.
CRONIN/HOST: That was KPRG's Naina Rao Rao speaking with Geoffrey Miller about the Cook Islands' new strategic partnership with China and the diplomatic tensions it has stirred. For more coverage on the Pacific, islapublic.org.
KPRG News transcripts are created on a rush deadline by a KPRG contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of KPRG's programming is the audio record.
