Typhoon Bavi began a period of rapid intensification Friday, strengthening from a 60-mph tropical storm to a 105-mph Category 2 typhoon in just 12 hours.
“The question is, how much longer will this trend continue?” Landon Aydlett of the National Weather Service said during a briefing Friday. “We are expecting this to be a significant typhoon over the next 12 to 24 hours, possibly a Category 5 by tomorrow.”
Seemingly minor shifts in the storm’s track could lead to a direct hit for Guam, Rota, Tinian or Saipan. All four islands were placed under a typhoon watch at 2 p.m. Friday, meaning typhoon conditions were possible within 48 hours.
As of 1 p.m., Typhoon Bavi was located at 12.7N and 154.8E. It was 675 miles east of Guam and heading west at 15 mph. The storm was expected to maintain its general course with a decrease in forward speed through the weekend.
“The islands that are within range of a direct hit, or the eye, this could be a very catastrophic event. If this thing hits any of the islands at 165 miles per hour, this will be worse than Sinlaku,” he said. “It won't be as long a duration as Sinlaku was, but those peak winds will be stronger than what Sinlaku or even Typhoon Mawar had here on Guam. So this is a very serious situation.”
Bavi is expected to become a super typhoon by Saturday morning.
“Right now, the current forecast is peak intensity before approach to the islands. We're looking at a peak intensity of 175 on Sunday, and then it's going to start a gradual weakening trend, hopefully that continues, but if it reaches peak intensity over top of us at 175 or even more, that's going to be profoundly more significant problems,” Aydlett said.
Damaging winds are expected to begin Sunday night and last through Tuesday morning.
“This is a very serious situation that we have to watch closely, take seriously,” he said. “Make sure you maximize your preparedness plans. Make sure you have your supplies and everything you need to hunker down at home and/or go to safe shelter.”
Aydlett said residents of all the islands should be getting ready for at least a tropical storm.
In addition to gathering supplies, Aydlett suggested “pulling those signs down, securing all the loose vulnerable-to-wind items, toys, ornaments, plants, trash, debris. If this comes closer, we're going to have to prepare more, and so we're right about 50 hours from onsetting conditions, and that time is going to be marching on, the weather is going to be fantastic today. It's going to be fantastic tomorrow. Use that time to be prepared and to take actions to protect life and property.”
