Tropical Storm Bavi is expected to intensify to super typhoon strength, possibly a Category 5 system with winds of 160 mph, when it passes through the Mariana Islands on Monday morning.
“This is going to be a very serious threat,” Landon Aydlett of the National Weather Service said during a briefing Thursday. “I'd say the situation is looking fairly grim for whoever is going to be under the peak conditions of this tropical cyclone.
As of 1 p.m. Thursday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicated that Bavi was likely to pass between Tinian and Rota. All islands should expect at least tropical storm-force conditions.
“This thing is developing, it's organizing, it's coming to better cohesion,” Aydlett said. “And now rapid intensification is a big concern as we move forward over the next day or two.”
Damaging winds are expected to start on Saipan and Tinian around 4 p.m. Sunday. If the forecast holds over the next few days, typhoon-force winds could begin at 3 a.m. Monday.
Rota will experience damaging winds beginning around 6 p.m. with typhoon-force winds at 6 a.m. Monday.
Damaging winds on Guam are expected around 9 p.m. Sunday, and no typhoon-force winds were expected on the island as of the Thursday afternoon forecast. However, the track shifted about 20 miles to the south from the morning forecast, according to Aydlett, bringing the storm closer to Guam and Rota.
“This could still be a direct hit to Guam,” he said. “There's the possibility that it could continue farther west of the current forecast or shift a little bit left of the current forecast track.”
Damaging winds are expected to last through Tuesday.
Maximum seas of 30-40 feet are expected on Saipan and Tinian, with 20-30 feet on Rota and Guam.
With the system still about 1,000 miles and three days away, there are still several unknowns.
Aydlett said those include how quickly Bavi will intensify, how long the rapid intensification will last, what the peak intensity will be, and the exact track of the storm.
In the meantime, Aydlett had some advice for the people of the Mariana Islands.
“The worst-case scenario, we take a direct hit by this monster and could be dealing with possibly Category 4, Category 5 super typhoon conditions, and we're going to be in a bad situation for a period of time,” he said. “So a very base-level preparedness - tents, canopies, tarps, political campaign signs, loose items, yard ornaments, toys, plants, trash, and debris, and more action is needed if Bobby tracks closer to Guam, and that remains a possibility.”
