Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan can expect between four and seven named tropical storms in the area during the rest of the year, with three to five of those developing into typhoons, Landon Aydlett of the National Weather Service said.
Two or three of those are expected to be major typhoons, he added.
The predictions involve how many storms are likely in the area, not whether will make landfall.
The higher-than average prediction is the result of this year’s El Niño weather pattern, which involves storms forming further to the east of Guam, then developing into more powerful storms when they reach the area.
“We’re not guaranteed to take another direct hit,” Aydlett said, “but the likelihood of a direct hit is going to be much higher than a La Niña year.”
During La Niña years, such as 2025, storms form further to the west, then develop into more significant systems before moving away from Micronesia.
Other predictions include:
- Northern CNMI: 3 to 5 storms, with 2 or 3 typhoons, 1 or 2 major typhoons.
- Yap: 3 to 5 storms, with 2 or 3 typhoons, 1 major.
- Palau: 2 to 4 named storms, with 1 or 2 typhoons.
- Chuuk, north of 6N: 4 to 6 storms, 1 to 3 typhoons, 1 major.
- Pohnpei, north of 6N: 3 to 5 storms, 1 to 3 typhoons, 1 major.
- Kosrae, Chuuk, Pohnpei south of 6N: 1 to 3 storms, 0 or 1 typhoons.
- Marshall Islands, north of 6N: 2 to 4 storms, 1 to 2 typhoons, 1 major.
- Marshall Islands, south of 6N: 1or 2 storms, 0 or 1 typhoon.
Aydlett’s presentation followed a proclamation signing for Typhoon Preparedness Month by Guam Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero and Lt. Gov. Josh Tenorio.
They were joined on Zoom by CNMI Gov. David Apatang.
Guam Homeland Security Advisor Esther Aguigui said residents should have a family emergency plan in place.
“Build a 72-hour emergency kit, rehearse a family communication plan, including off-island contacts, and know your village hazards, which include surge, flooding and wind because it varies across Guam’s terrain,” she said.
Aydlett said that even though El Niño years tend to be busier for storms, there is no guarantee the weather will meet expectations.
“This is not a time to panic, but it’s just a reminder to prepare and be ready,” he said. “Readiness and preparedness should be year-round for all of us in the islands, because disasters can strike at any time, whether it is a typhoon or an earthquake.”
